HVAC System Market Size, Share, Growth by 2030

The HVAC system market is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching approximately 579.75 million by 2030, up from US$ 246.10 billion in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% from 2022 to 2028.

As temperatures rise, air conditioning units become essential for comfort and safety. However, many individuals are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of selecting the right air conditioning unit and the necessity of upgrading outdated systems. This heightened awareness is expected to positively influence the HVAC system market. Modern HVAC systems are not only cost-effective but also environmentally friendly, enhancing indoor air quality. In an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, numerous countries have committed to collaborative initiatives aimed at minimizing the use of hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants (HFCs), which are known to be particularly harmful to energy efficiency. The growing acceptance of advanced HVAC systems, which emit lower levels of greenhouse gases, is likely to further expand the HVAC system market. These systems offer advantages such as reduced operational costs and energy savings, while also supporting sustainability goals related to environmental protection. Collectively, these factors are expected to drive the adoption of HVAC systems, thereby fostering market growth.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on HVAC System Market Growth

The COVID-19 pandemic led to government-imposed restrictions aimed at curbing the virus's spread, which significantly disrupted the operations of many automobile manufacturers. Stringent measures and supply chain interruptions, particularly the shortage of semiconductor chips, posed serious challenges for HVAC system market participants. In 2020, several economies in the Asia Pacific region experienced a notable decline in GDP due to widespread economic shutdowns. Exports of machinery from countries like China, Japan, and those in the ASEAN region saw a downturn. The implementation of travel bans, the emergence of the delta variant, and other complications further strained global value chains (GVCs) throughout 2021. For ASEAN, while machinery exports fluctuated, the export of general and electric machinery and precision machinery products remained above pre-pandemic levels. East Asia continued to export more machinery regionally through August 2021, despite occasional declines in specific sectors. Following the lockdowns in 2020, manufacturing activities in India largely halted, with the exception of the rice milling sector, which saw a 50% reduction in output, according to a United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) report. Industries such as metals, chemicals, automobiles, machinery, and textiles were among the hardest hit. These disruptions led to a slowdown in HVAC system market growth globally. However, by the end of 2020, demand for HVAC systems began to recover as industries resumed operations and commercial establishments reopened.

The Asia Pacific (APAC) region is projected to account for over 34% of the HVAC system market share by 2030. In 2022, China held the largest share of the HVAC system market in APAC, followed by Japan and South Korea. The HVAC market in China is expanding rapidly, with residential and commercial buildings being significant adopters of these systems. In India, the demand for energy for space cooling in buildings is increasing swiftly, putting pressure on the electricity grid and contributing to local air pollution and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The HVAC market in India is evolving by incorporating features such as enhanced air filtration into existing systems. The high summer temperatures in northern India and elevated humidity levels in the southern and western regions are key drivers of HVAC market growth in the country.

There is a notable difference in size and requirements between residential and commercial HVAC units. Commercial systems are generally larger and have different conditioning needs compared to residential units. To effectively manage the climate in a commercial building, three components are essential: heating or cooling air, a distribution system, and control mechanisms. A single thermostat typically regulates both heating and cooling in commercial settings, with air circulating through the same ductwork. When heating is activated, burners generate combustion gas that is directed to a heat exchanger, warming the air that passes through. Commercial buildings often utilize simple, programmable thermostats that send heating or cooling signals throughout the space, similar to residential HVAC systems. The increasing demand from commercial sectors is expected to further propel the growth of the HVAC system market.

Key players in the HVAC system market include Daikin Industries, Ltd.; Emerson Electric Co.; Rheem Manufacturing Company; Honeywell International Ltd.; Johnson Controls International plc; LG Electronics, Inc.; EVAPCO; Lennox International; Carrier AG; and Trane Technologies, Inc.

The overall size of the HVAC system market has been determined through a combination of primary and secondary research methods. The research process began with extensive secondary research utilizing both internal and external sources to gather qualitative and quantitative data related to the market. This approach also aimed to provide an overview and forecast of the HVAC system market across various segments. Additionally, numerous primary interviews were conducted with industry stakeholders and experts to validate the findings and gain deeper analytical insights. Participants included VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers, national sales managers, and external consultants, such as valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders specializing in the HVAC system market.